Ukraine and Iran avoided escalation through ambiguity, but the Caspian incident exposed how fragile that restraint remains

For Tehran, the Zangezur Corridor thus represents less a binary choice between obstruction and acquiescence than a test of its ability to align strategic red lines with policy innovation.

Iran's most important strategic goal in the Horn of Africa is to penetrate the Red Sea outlet, which is perhaps the most important of the global waterways.