The IAEA’s Acute Challenges to Enforce the Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) on Iran

The nuclear agreement that was reached on July 14, 2015, between Iran and P5+1 wiped out most of the achievements of the Iran’s nuclear endeavor. However, success of the deal depends on a number of factors including full transparency, vigorous verification and monitoring of the nuclear program over the next several decades, an approach which has its own risks.

Iran is obliged to ratify the Additional Protocol but there are major challenges namely lack of a specific timeline for Tehran’s ratification in the JCPOA and the power struggle in Tehran over the deal which indicate that Iran may not ratify the protocol at least in the foreseeable future. Even ratifying the Additional Protocol may not provide a 100 percent guarantee that Iran would be caught if it cheated. To prevent that possibility, vigorous intelligence efforts are required by the IAEA member states to ensure a rigorous counter-proliferation regime. Effective implementation of the JCPOA requires a sustained funding from the IAEA member states to cover the costs of inspections. Another crucial step for effectively implementing of the deal is to train more experts and qualified inspectors by the IAEA as the current number of the agency experts are not sufficient, which may put the agency’s safeguard activities at risk and degrade the quality of safeguard inspections as well as making it extremely difficult for the IAEA to detect noncompliance.