What is emerging, then, is not a stable post-war order but a fragile state of “neither war nor peace.”

Israel faces constraints as Iran remains resilient, the U.S. limits escalation and domestic politics drive risk with fewer options

The Iraqi elections constitute a critical juncture that will directly influence Iran’s regional strategy.

Israel’s airstrikes aim to weaken Iran, create domestic chaos and gain broader regional dominance

Tehran seeks an exit from a potential crisis with the U.S., while Israel pushes preemptive options to guarantee its safety