The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran quickly drew international attention and heightened concerns about a potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East. However, European leaders and officials have been notably cautious in their public statements and refrained from condemning the act. Their response has been marked by deep anxiety, reflecting broader concerns about escalating violence and its potential impact on regional stability and Israel's security. In essence, Europe is deeply apprehensive about the implications of the assassination, fearing it could further destabilize the already volatile Middle East and pose a direct threat to their principal regional partner, Israel.

Peter Stano, the European Commission's spokesperson for foreign affairs, expressed clear concern over the potential for escalation, stating, “We call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and avoid any further escalation. No country or nation stands to gain from increased tensions in the Middle East.” Stano's concerns were echoed by other top European officials, who urgently called for restraint, fearing that Haniyeh’s assassination could provoke retaliatory attacks, deepen divisions, and undermine diplomatic efforts. The UK also voiced its apprehension over rising tensions, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defense Secretary John Healey traveling to the region to advocate for an end to the conflict in Gaza and broader de-escalation. “Escalation and destabilization are in no one’s interest. It is absolutely vital that we engage closely with partners like Qatar, who play a key role in mediating the conflict in Gaza, so that we can bring this devastating war to an end,” Lammy stated.

Germany similarly called for immediate de-escalation. “It must now be a matter of keeping a cool head and doing everything possible to de-escalate, and the chance of a hostage agreement and a cease-fire in Gaza must not be squandered now,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer during a press briefing in Berlin. At the UN Security Council (UNSC) emergency session convened on July 31 at Iran’s request, France voiced alarm over the potential for a broader conflagration in the Middle East. On August 5, French President Emmanuel Macron echoed this concern in a tweet, urging all actors to “show responsibility and restraint in order to avoid a regional escalation,” emphasizing that escalation is in no one’s interest.

The killing prompted European leaders to reaffirm their unwavering support for Israel's security. On August 12, the leaders of France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy issued a joint statement expressing their backing for Israel’s defense “against Iranian aggression and attacks by Iran-backed terrorist groups.” This display of solidarity underscores Europe's commitment to Israel's security amid escalating tensions.

Europe's refusal to label Israel's actions as illegitimate or unlawful, despite fears of a regional war, was unsurprising given the complex relations between Tel Aviv and European capitals. A strong condemnation from Europe over Haniyeh’s killing was never expected. Yet, to fully grasp the dynamics at play, it's crucial to consider the broader context of Europe’s stance on Hamas and Iran.

Iran's Response to European Capitals

In response to the assassination, Iran’s representative at the UNSC meeting criticized European countries, though stopped short of directly blaming them. The representative remarked, “For nearly ten months, certain countries, particularly the United States, have shielded Israel from any responsibility for the massacre in Gaza and malicious activities in the region”. While Iran did not explicitly accuse Europe of direct involvement in the assassination, the rhetoric reflects broader dissatisfaction with European foreign policies and their impact on regional conflicts. This indirect criticism highlights Iran’s broader geopolitical stance, viewing Europe as complicit in the larger context of Western influence in the Middle East.

Current Europe-Iran Relations

As war looms in the Middle East, relations between Europe and Iran have plummeted to unprecedented lows. The decline began with Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and has been exacerbated by a series of critical events. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with Iran’s continued military support for Russia, has significantly soured Europe-Iran relations. The 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, marked by severe human rights abuses, further strained ties. Tehran’s interpretation of the West’s failure to revive the JCPOA as a sign of weakness, combined with Western support for the protesters, has been viewed as part of a regime change agenda. This perception has fuelled anti-Western sentiment among Iran’s ruling elites, deepening the rift with Europe.

Relations between Europe and Iran remain deeply strained, particularly in the nuclear sphere. Iran’s persistent obstruction of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors has further exacerbated tensions. The October 7th Hamas attack on Israel marked another pivotal moment, intensifying the already fraught relationship. European discontent with Iran’s regional activities and ballistic missile program has only grown more pronounced since then. Despite these challenges, Western governments recognize the necessity of engaging with Iran to avert a potentially catastrophic regional war. However, the aggression of the Netanyahu Government has made this engagement increasingly difficult for Europe.